Another year of memorable MMA closes as we enter 2023. While 2022 wasn't short in legacy defining moments for many of this era's greatest fighters, there are still many questions that are unanswered going into this new year. These are my predictions on how I can see things unfolding at each weight class. As I am a fan first, many of these predictions might be slightly influenced with what I want to happen, but all are genuinely reasonable outcomes in my mind. Here we go.
Flyweight Champion: Brandon Moreno
Many questions around the flyweight division will be answered early in 2023 by Moreno's fourth fight with Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 283 on January 21st. If the first three fights between these two have taught us anything, I think we can say that these two fighters can both beat each other on any given night. In fact, their last encounter was so close that I (and many others) thought Moreno won, though a toss up. So I think picking this fight is a coin flip. I give Moreno a very narrow edge as I thought he barely won their third encounter, and therefore can see him winning their fourth through a narrow decision. Moreno will likely have to defend his belt again in 2023 if he gets past Figueiredo. I think the likely person this could be against is Alejandro Pantoja, who's racked up a 9-3 record in the UFC (with a resume of solid names) and has yet to be given a title shot. Pantoja would be an interesting matchup for Moreno, though I think the edge Moreno would have on the ground might be too much to handle for Pantoja.
Batnamweight Champion: Sean O'Malley
Both O'Malley and Dana White have said that the next time O'Malley steps into the octagon, the belt will be on the line. O'malley has also said on his podcast that he is looking to fight his next fight around July, which gives just enough time for Sterling and Cejudo to happen in the meantime if they can get a deal worked out soon. I think whether O'Malley's near future holds a belt or not hinges on who wins this matchup greatly. Both Sterling and Cejudo have dominant grappling abilities, I think O'Malley has a clearer route to victory against Cejudo with his significant size advantage, which can only add to his edge in striking over Cejudo.
Batnamweight has potential to generate an epic, WWE-like story line if a deal can be worked out between Sterling and Cejudo soon, and if O'Malley can perform against whoever wins. Whether you thought O'Malley controversial win over Petr Yan was deserved, I think its safe to say O'Malley proved he can perform in big moments to the ability we've witnessed on his rise to top contention. If O'Malley can perform in such a way and wins the belt, I truly believe the possibilities are endless at this division. A clear path that will guarantee a barn burner of a fight for O'Malley's potential first title defense, which could be in late 2023, would be the winner of the recently announced fight between Cory Sandhagen and Chito Vera on February 18th. As a fan it's almost impossible to not root for Chito in that one, just to hope to see Chito as O'Malley's first potential title defense. Obviously that's quite a few steps ahead of where we are now, but I think that is the best case scenario for the UFC from a storyline perspective, and frankly a reasonably likely potential outcome.
Featherweight Champion: Alexander Volkanovski
The featherweight division is at an interesting point right now with Volkanovski going up to 155 lbs to fight Islam Makhachev, forcing an interim championship fight between Josh Emmett and Yair Rodriguez on February 11th. This should result in Volkanovski having to defend his featherweight belt against the winner of this fight in the second half of 2023, regardless of what happens in his Makhachev fight. Whether Emmett or Rodriguez win the interim belt, I do not see either having a chance against Volkanovski in the title unifier. While both are great fighters, I don't think Emmett will have the opportunity to let his wrestling shine against the solid defensive wrestling of Volkanovski, before he takes damage from a significant striking disadvantage. If we see Rodriguez in the unifier, I think the likelyhood of him outstriking Volkanovski is slim. While some fights were close, Volkanovski out struck Max Holloway in three fights while Rodriguez was outclassed in his Holloway fight. I doubt the transitive property is a good way to pick MMA fights, but if history tells us anything its that there are differences in the level of Volk and Rodriguez through their performances against the common opponent, Yair Rodriguez.
Lightweight Champion: Islam Makhachev
Like the featherweight belt, I don't think anything will change here. After what we saw makhachev do to Charles Oliviera to win become champ last month makes a strong case on why I see him still holding onto it by the end of this year. There's no debate that the lightweight division is absolutely stacked; there are top level contenders through the entire rankings and even outside of them. However, I don't see any of them giving Makhachev a run for his money in 2023.
Welterweight Champion: Belal Muhammad
Belal has some serious momentum coming into 2023. Belal probably won't get the next welterweight title shot with Masvidal vs Edwards in discussion (I'm as disappointed as you all are). However, with his last win over Sean Brady, I think Belal is right there in top contention. I could see him fighting a title eliminator next against someone like the winner of Burns vs Magny, Covington or maybe even Khamzat if he can still fight at 170 lbs. Either way, Belal looks like he's at the top of his game. His last win over Brady silenced some of his criticism in being a wrestling dominant fighter who wins many of his fights on the scorecard. He showed he's capable a capable striker when he needs to be and can finish a top level fighter on the feet in Brady. Not to mention, before Brady, Belal was coming off of wins over Vincente Luque and Stephen Thompson, two other top level guys. Therefore, I think Belal has the resume to get a title fight in 2023, and has shown that he has the game to pose a real threat to the champ.
Middleweight Champion: Khamzat Chimaev
After Khamzat missed weight by 8 lbs last fall for his planned headliner against Nate Diaz, many questions presented itself regarding his ability to make 170 lbs. He's a clear size / strength mismatch for anyone in this weight class, which I think is part of how his wrestling is so dominant. Considering this, I think Khamzat's best move would to stay in this weight class and continue domination, though, I don't know if it's realistic for him to continue making this weight after the events surrounding his last fight. For even more incentive to move up to middleweight, there is a new champ in Alex Periera that isn't exactly known for his grappling abilities to say the least, so I think the matchup would heavily favor Khamzat. Middleweight isn't exactly stacked with top contenders right now either; I think the only other deserving fighter is Adesanya rematching Periera. This rematch is likely to happen in my opinion, but frankly I'd take Khamzat over either of them for his overwhelming advantage in grappling.
Light Heavyweight Champion: Magomed Ankalaev
It's safe to say UFC fans left 2022 with no closure from the Light Heavyweight division. After Jiri Procházka vacated the belt and pulled out of his rematch against Glover Texiera scheduled for December 2022 due to injury, it left many UFC fans disappointed that this weight class has to lose their new, exciting, fan-favorite champion, at least until he is healthy enough to challenge again. But even more so, it leaves the question of who's next. To make the division's direction even less clear, we had Ankalaev fight Jan Blachowicz in its place for the vacated title, which resulted in a very controversial split draw, though many (including myself) think Ankalaev won that fight. Because of all of this, it's tough to tell the direction of the Light Heavyweight Division. Glover Texiera will fight Jamal Hill in two weekends from now, and I think the winner of that should probably get Ankalaev next. Regardless, I think Ankalaev showed he's at the top of this weight class with Jiri out in his last fight against Blachowicz, and supported this in his past victories against Smith and Santos. With the severity of Jiri's injury, I'd guess that he will not have a fight in 2023, and I think Ankalaev is a bit above the other top contenders.
Heavyweight Champion: Francis Ngannou
While many questions surround the future of the Light Heavyweight division, the future of the Heavyweight division is perhaps even less clear. With the current champ, Ngannou up for free agency and lingering talks of a super fight between him and Jon Jones in his heavyweight debut, I think all UFC fans have been left wondering what the UFC's next move will be with the Heavyweights for the last few months now. To add even more to it, other contenders such as Sergi Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes are in a good position for a title shot in 2023, as well as Tom Aspinal when he recovers from his injury. Quite honestly I feel like anything could happen in the heavyweight division; this one is for sure the hardest to make a pick. If I had to make a call, I think Ngannou vs Jones doesn't pan out and Jones doesn't fight again. Though if they do fight, I'd still probably take Ngannou. I think Ngannou will still resign with the UFC and see a contender like Pavlovich or Blaydes later this year and will continue his dominance against either one.
Thank you all. Women's belt predictions will probably come this weekend.
-Omega
Comments